A Cure for Baldness Less than 10 Years Away

The cure for baldness timeline in the title of this post will make sense if you read the end of this post.

The media is continuing its frenetic coverage of the two big hair loss cure related news items from a month ago:

  1. Stemson Therapeutics and its stem cell hair loss treatment.
  2. Columbia University and Dr. Angela Christiano’s 3D printing hair technology.

The latest major publication articles covering the above two stories have contrasting tones. This is evident from their respective titles:

Who will Cure Hair Loss First?

Hair Loss Cure
Baldness cure.

The sad part of countless such viral hair loss cure related news stories is that they do not even mention the two entities with the brightest prospects:

  1. Dr. Takashi Tsuji and RIKEN (Japan).
  2. Shiseido (Japan).

Both the above are well ahead of Stemson and the Angela Christiano/Columbia University team when it comes to timeline of product release. In fact, Dr. Tsuji has stated his goal is to release his hair multiplication treatment by the end of 2020. Shiseido is aiming for a worst case 2022 product release.

Note that are also many other researchers and companies working on realizing a cure for baldness.

Cure for Baldness Less than 10 Years Away

In any event, I chuckled when I read renowned hair transplant surgeon Dr. Robert Bernstein’s quote in the earlier linked “The Atlantic” magazine article:

“For a long time, we’ve been saying this is 10 years away. But now it actually might be less.”

Personally, I believe we are much close than that in finally ending androgenetic alopecia.

97 thoughts on “A Cure for Baldness Less than 10 Years Away”

  1. Well… what can I comment to this… you are lucky if you are 20 years old and going bald.
    I’m 47 I need something now and not in 10 years… depressing as usual…

    1. All I can say is get a toupee. At least for now. It’s kind of embarrassing but I’m considering getting one myself. There are definitely realistic ones out there so no one (except people who know you) would discover your secret.

  2. Actually, a cure for baldness has always been 5 years away, so the article’s “less than 10 years” optimism is just depressing. Lets just ignore that nonsense.

    To hear companies like Riken claiming less than 2 years is wonderful progress. Stating an “imminent” goal has near-term consequences for failure, so it increases legitimacy versus the old fashioned 5 year claim. I don’t mind if Riken’s date inevitably slips a bit, so long as they keep talking 2 years or less. We’re getting close!

    1. Fyi — I was being sarcastic with title per Dr. Bernstein’s quote at bottom of post. Also, less than 10 years can mean 1 year too :-)

    2. Admin,
      I immediately understood the sarcastic title. I was speaking of The Atlantic article… So ridiculous

      As always, thanks for keeping the conversation going!

    1. @Prayers for hair No, no, no. That’s the potential for ALL FOUR of Replicel’s products to be on the market by 2022. RCH-01’s lifecycle is complete. It’s ready to launch if they wish.

  3. Putting a timing on these things has always been very tricky. However, I note that Stemson is now planning clinical trials in around 18 months time. I think this means that with a fair wind there is a very good chance of commercialization within five years or so. Needless to say, there are now a number of companies working on hair multiplication which all take different approaches (e.g. Invitrohair and bio-engineering follicles). I suspect things may now move faster than we think.

    1. If we could just get our hands on actual breezela in the meantime and just maintian a few more years we would be golden.

    2. @Alan J Yeah. Cloning ain’t happening in the US for another few years because of the trials. 2 or 3 are needed as we know. The IPCs technology practically is the same both in the US and in Japan but the doctors behind it are different. But at least American companies are picking up now – Stemson and Rapunzel and others. Only a matter of time before they get the show on the road stateside.

  4. Sheer wishful thinking!
    No evidence at all!

    Don’t get me wrong eventually hair multiplication will be a reality, but the ten-year estimate is bogus.

  5. Admin, i felt the same way when i read that quote a few days ago. Such an uncertain comment its laughable. He really went out on a limb

    I was thinking though, if the cure isnt announced by Dec 31 2020 would you consider changing the sites name from
    hairlosscure2020.com to within5years.com?

    Im kidding of course
    or am I….
    I dont know anymore
    Cry

  6. Sorry to all felas who thought we will never be bald thanks to the coming cure. With aggressive hairloss I am done within 2 years max. Realistically speaking, injecting cloned cells in your body ain’t gonna happen any time soon, because of safety and involved risks (even if they release it!), it is not gonna be mass market any time soon. Hairloss sucks and hair cloning is and remains « only » 10 years away.

    1. Samumed’s phase 3 is only allowing those of Norwood 3 or 4 to take part. Very much like the test subjects of the recently failed Aclaris, they are trying to stack the deck in their favour.

      Breezula promises no more gains that you would otherwise get using Minoxidil and Finasteride, but is merely a less side-effect alternative.

      Histogen I do like. Their transparency, their pipeline and it appears to be more than just a mere “maintenance” option.

  7. this is not good… why can’t some of these companies simply stand up and say… hey guys we have it…
    I remember when propecia came out, the next day I read a little comic about it on the local news paper that portraited a little bald man who had just gotten out of the shower and while he was looking him self on the mirror he was holding a big jar of pills that said more hair on it… it seems like a looooong time ago…it was a long time ago…

  8. 10 years away lol. For all new hair loss sufferers don’t believe this for a second. Hop on the big three and pray it works and pray follica, SM and CB rolls out in the next couple years for regrowth…..hair cloning is still in the infancy stages. They haven’t even done a human trail yet. Think about it….

    1. Mjones does not even realize the difference between hair multiplication and hair cloning. After 1000 comments, really pathetic.

  9. Guys just stop with the Histogen nonsense. I cant believe anyone has faith in them. Haven’t you learned that company gets no where fast throughout the last decade?

  10. I am in a big dilemma guys. Should i get on the big 3 or wait a couple of years longer for Shiseido and Dr.Tsuji?

  11. 1. I’m not sure how much further ahead the japanese companies are. Also, theyve been in the news before… they’re just not doing press releases so nobody is going news about them.

    2. This is an interesting study published recently that may back Stephen Foote’s theory and/or back the mechanical stress theory.

    An important role of cutaneous lymphatic vessels in coordinating and promoting anagen hair follicle growth.

    Abstract
    The lymphatic vascular system plays important roles in the control of tissue fluid homeostasis and immune responses. While VEGF-A-induced angiogenesis promotes hair follicle (HF) growth, the potential role of lymphatic vessels (LVs) in HF cycling has remained unknown. In this study, we found that LVs are localized in close proximity to the HF bulge area throughout the postnatal and depilation-induced hair cycle in mice and that a network of LVs directly connects the individual HFs. Increased LV density in the skin of K14-VEGF-C transgenic mice was associated with prolongation of anagen HF growth. Conversely, HF entry into the catagen phase was accelerated in K14-sVEGFR3 transgenic mice that lack cutaneous LVs. Importantly, repeated intradermal injections of VEGF-C promoted hair growth in mice. Conditioned media from lymphatic endothelial cells promoted human dermal papilla cell (DPC) growth and expression of IGF-1 and alkaline phosphatase, both activators of DPCs. Our results reveal an unexpected role of LVs in coordinating and promoting HF growth and identify potential new therapeutic strategies for hair loss-associated conditions.

    3. These is an interesting paper. I’m trying to figure out if theyre chopping up hair follicles and replanting them, or if this is another PRP-type gimmick.

    “An autologous solution of micro-grafts was obtained from mechanical fragmentation and centrifugation of scalp biopsy’s (2 × 2 mm) using “Gentile protocol”. The micro-grafts solution was mechanically infiltrated on half of the selected patients’ scalps with Androgenic Alopecia (Norwood-Hamilton 2-5 and Ludwig 1-2). ”

    pictures in the study: https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/20/14/3446

  12. Shiseido chief scientist said they will be announcing results within the “next two months” 55~ days ago …so …soon?

    Follica is filing FDA 2020 ..to market?

    Tsuji is testing safety planning on final phase to market release in 16 months.

    I trust Stemson Rapunzel and hairclone will be out before 2030. Watch code of the wild trailer and ask yourself is technology and dialogue today different from 2009. I think so. When you got the chief scientist of Harvard contemplating age reversing in dogs And humans with a website and financial backers … Its a new day

    1. Source? Not being sarcastic, want to read it.

      Ppl forget we cloned a sheep in the kate 90s. Tbh … we are behind because the beliefs of stem cell in regards to religion. Same reason we are behind in the U.S in physics….

      1. Ahh sources? I’m on my cell phone. shiseido chief scientist ryoji(I think) was early last month on (website name) saying end of July or so they will announce but not allowed to say himself.

        Follica announcement was a comment link in this thread.

        Tsuji 2020 time line has been consistent for years now.

        Code of the wild youtube

  13. admin
    If the science and clinical trials do not arrive at an effective cure for baldness in 2020, will you change the URL to another year?

    1. I’m all in on admins epic precognitive vision I’ve been here from day 1 and I’m dumping all my chips on Tsuji admin 2020

        1. Admin,

          Keep in mind that if your prediction is wrong, you can also claim that after all these years and your learning about predicting with better accuracy now, you have 2020 vision about when hair loos cure will happen. And, Presto! no need to change the website url. :-)

  14. AJ you have problems my friend. Slow your roll with the insults. I don’t attack you and call you names. So far I have been right. Mark my words the only thing coming out in the next 5 years will be follica and SM. The rest is 10 yrs away. I have research doctors I met in person at UPenn, stating the same when I visited to evaluate my hair loss. The doctor told me straight up don’t expect hair cloning multiplication wont happen for over a decade. But I guess you are right Alan im full of bs and so is university of Pennsylvania hair loss research group. Get a life bro….insulting people on the Internet….lol

  15. Most media outlets report this stuff when a press release shows up in their inbox or when it’s already popping up on other news sites. They can’t be bothered to ACTUALLY research. There’s no investment, resources, or, frankly, desire. It what also fuels the sham research and snake oil industry.

    It’s low-rent reporting: unresearched, not controversial, and the headlines grab the attention of an unfortunate fraction of readers/viewers. No reporters are diverted from getting their makeup done for the five o’clock news, or from covering the latest car accident or bear sighting. It’s low stakes. It’s easy. It’s just hair, right? And there’s usually a slight hint of mocking irony when the bullshit is read off a teleprompter by an idiot with a good hairline.

    That’s why you’re here, admin, for men and women with the wherewithal to do a google search and the brains to be critical about the results.

  16. I visited Penn as well somewhere between 2 and 5 years ago..time kind of runs together any more..guess I’m getting old. But anyway, the derm there told me nothing is coming out any time soon. I asked if she meant within the next year or two and she nodded her head no. I asked of it would be much much longer and she said yes.

  17. I agree, a definitive cure will be put on the market only in 5/10 years. Now we can only hope for something that gives better results than minox and fina, but even this will not be easy.

  18. If follica was to come out though, wouldnt it not be a cure but enough to appear as a decent head of hair? As in like slightly thinned but enough coverage to get by?

  19. Admin, your readers, as a group, probably know more about the possibilities on the horizon than anyone, given your efforts, and there is much speculation about time lines. Without picking winners or losers, and as a general observation, I would point out that: 1) from a more pessimistic perspective, we still have yet to see a set of pictures indicating anything close to a consistent, substantial improvement over existing treatments; and 2) from a more optimistic perspective, there is an an ever growing number of legitimate entrants in the game collectively attracting large amounts of capital. While that doesn’t mean much with respect to predicting the success of any one player, or make the time line any clearer, capital typically follows opportunity so I can’t help but think that a breakthru is getting close. Any idea how many legitimate players are in the game?

    1. Well put. At least 10 legitimate players in my opinion, although some would say that companies such as Follica and Histogen are no longer legit (due to how long they have been taking, insufficient human photo proof etc…).

          1. Perhaps giving more weight to Follica’s recent positive results from their optimization studies, is an update over at Follicle Thought about a drug candidate used for hair regrowth and follicle neogenesis after wounding from Korea. The drug candidate is a peptide called PTD-DBM but it was mixed with Valproic acid, the same substance reportedly used by Follica.

  20. If Shiseido draw a blank, I will resume with my hair system after the summer. If that makes me the bad guy then so be it.

    On a more serious note, the worst thing about them is they only last a few weeks because of the bonding agent. If a better one was developed could this be classed as a treatment? After all, it does give you a Norwood 1. Results visible without a microscope, unlike every other treatment.

  21. Great job admin,

    I think the first linked article touches upon a critical area of interest – will it be economically feasible to an average Joe to perform these procedures?

  22. If your hanging your hat (no pun intended) on being able to go to Japan in the next year or so to have Shiseido injected and call it a day I’d resume what you’re doing. Seems like most on here are expecting a silver bullet with Shiseido and Riken that will materialize soon, be affordable, easy to get, a one shot deal. I hope I’m wrong but I highly doubt this will be the case. I believe the expectations by many with these treatments won’t line up with the reality.These comments have nothing to do with potential effectiveness.

    1. A considerable number of people here ( including me ) have invested themselves on Shiseido and Tsuji. In the unwishful scenario they fail, depression will hit us real hard. It’s literally do or die.

      1. Dude, it’s not that they fail or that they succeed, no one knows. However, if they succeed, even in the next year or so, I believe people are deluding themselves that the treatments will be attainable for most due to logistical issues, availability and possibly cost (at least overall with travel). Then again, what do I know, maybe all who seek it will have a full head of hair by 2021. If you’re putting all your eggs into these baskets I believe you’ll be disappointed, unless you’re prepared to wait a few years after launch.

  23. I think we have 4 companies to the cure:

    – organ technologies (tsuji)
    – stemson
    – rapunzel (3d model)
    – poietis (3d printer)

    My bet: TSUJI soon will have the cure (unlimited follicles to transplantation)
    look in youtube the work of juan couto and imagine with unlimited hairs ;) great density and the best hair ever

  24. Anyone done an fue with Dr Couto? I’m curious to see if those results are legit. If they are, then ill sign right up and end this cure seeking nonsense. Tsuji, rapinzel, stemson, poeitis all are decade out. Tsuji will be first to hit market from those. None of these companies have started human trials. People here need to be more realistic on time frames. We need to focus on follica and their fda filing for 2020. Not sure why people are not excited about that….

    1. Because it doesn’t have the high-tech approach that these new guys do. The fact that it’s the simplest, whether it’s backed by positive clinical data, is irrelevant to them because its tech isn’t as exciting.

      An issue in the hairloss world is that a lot of people are easily distracted by how “shiny” the thing is; what they WANT rather than what is possible.

      Saying you got your hair back with this wicked stem cell treatment is a whole lot cooler to them than saying “Doctor hit my scalp with a dermapen and some chemicals”

  25. But damn, I thought we would have known result of tsuji this months. Why we have not? When will we know anything?
    Thank you. I cannot live with baldness anymore…

    1. Yes you can. What a time to be alive, it will happen in your lifetime. The Egyptians started looking for a cure over 5,000 years ago. How many generations have there been since? What are the odds? Exciting times.

  26. Mjones to respond to your statement, I am reluctant to get excited about follica because it appears you need to be on minox or fin in order for it to work. I cant handle either one. It says used with current approved treatments. .

    1. TJ, in what credible place did you READ that? Hersey on the internet doesn’t count as credible. Wouldn’t matter to me as I have been on Minox over 30 years and Fin/Dut over 20 but I’ve not read this was part of the protocol anywhere except by various forum posters talking out of their a**. If I’m wrong, which is possible, please provide the the goods.

  27. If women had the same baldness as men, lots of women norwood 3+ , the cure would have happened long time ago.

  28. Not true. It is completely devastating for a woman to have hair loss. We look like we are terminally and it is not socially acceptable. I wake up every morning afraid to comb my hair. I am embarrassed to go out. Find it painfully difficult to wear coats, go to the beach, walk on windy days. Our hair is longer usually which makes it harder to apply these treatments to our scalp, wash out the next day, and reapply,

    1. @ nasa_rs Wow! Impressive results! Interesting to see that they show no signs of Androgenic Alopecia even they are “older” men.

        1. Well I guess most of us would be happy with that Little AGA! :-)
          BTW I wonder didnt they quit the AA Trial? And now we see these great results!? I checked the Stock and Aclaris Shares are still crashing. Whats wrong1?

          1. And the Aclaris results were only for 6 months!

            I’m calling it we have a treatment for hairloss but its for AA and not available commerciallly.. Ughh. I was right about JAK solving hairloss but only for AA (for now?).

            Not sure if this was for lotion or pill for AA.

          2. The Stock probably Crashing since instead of going commercial with the product they are probably going to do more clinical trials and rumor has it a big drug company might be working on a similar product.

            If the latter is true then that is good news although Aclaris has done a great job in showing potential for products that can actually grow hair. All is my opinion.

    1. It’s unlikely to happen anytime soon. Much harder than to edit and change hair texture/color, which hasn’t been done yet. The graal would be to edit our follicles genes so that they are invulnerable to DHT and inflammation.

  29. Short answer: None of us have the slightest idea when the cure will be released. These are just mere predictions. There are people out there believing every single post that gives them hope that the cure will be released in the near future.

    Start using finasteride and dutasteride if you want to save the hair that you still got.

    1. Not that your advice is wrong, but this whole “we have no idea” thing is just nonsense. Predictions absolutely can be made based on currently-available data.

  30. Hello:

    I’m wondering if anyone has logistical insight re: Shiseido’s or Riken’s release. For example, if Riken is ready for patients/customers in 2020, would they have to travel to Japan? Are there any cost estimates available for this treatment? Is the procedure an office visit, multiple office visits? How type of growth can one expect? How long will it realistically last? Can multiple office visits be done to increase efficacy? Will multiple visits need to be done to maintain hair.

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