In 2013, I Predicted a Hair Loss Cure in 2020

Happy New Year everyone!

2020 is finally here and we hope that a hair loss cure is close. It is worth scrolling through my hair loss research around the world post for background information to this post.

Will a Hair Loss Cure Come in 2020?

When I started this blog in 2013, I forecast that a hair loss cure would likely be realized by the end of 2020. At the very least, I predicted that we would have a treatment that prevented any further permanent hair loss. In effect, this would imply that no-one in future would go bald if that was their desire.

When making the prediction, I was focusing on androgenetic alopecia (AGA or male pattern hair loss) and female pattern hair loss. Later on, I also covered other much less common forms of hair loss such as alopecia areata (AA). The latter mentioned may in fact now be curable in many people via the use of JAK inhibitors. See my past posts on that subject.

Best Prospect

  • A few years after I made the prediction, renowned Japanese scientist Dr. Takashi Tsuji (in partnership with RIKEN, Organ Technologies and Kyocera) announced that his hair loss cure would be realized by year-end 2020! Even more amazing, around 2015, the Japanese government changed regulations to allow for faster clinical trial completion. Mostly for autologous and regenerative medicine type medical and cosmetic treatments. Often entailing stem cells.
  • The latest 2019 update from Dr. Tsuji remains encouraging, albeit a very expensive solution initially. Note that Dr. Tsuji is funded by both the private sector and by the Japanese government. His lab is also working on cures for teeth regeneration and salivary gland regeneration.

Others Working on a Hair Loss Treatment

  • A few other companies (Cassiopea via Breezula, Follica, Follicum and Samumed) are close to coming out with significantly better hair loss treatments during the 2020-2022 period. Or, at the very least, finishing Phase 3 clinical trials. In the past, I have written at least 10 posts covering each of those four companies. Check the “Categories” menu of this blog for more information. To date, only Finasteride and Minoxidil have been approved to treat male pattern hair loss by the US FDA. And nothing new in the past several decades. Therefore, any new effective treatments for androgenetic alopecia would be a miracle.
  • A Japanese cosmetics behemoth named Shiseido could also surprise us (after resolving partnership issues with Canada’s Replicel). In fact, I consider Shiseido to be the second best prospect (after Tsuji). The company has access to its own technology as well as to Replicel’s groundbreaking technology. And absolutely no problems with fundraising.
  • Newer entrants I covered last year such as Stemson Therapeutics, TissUse (plus J. Hewitt), Rapunzel (Dr. Angela Christiano), Pelage Pharmaceuticals and Exicure all hold significant potential. However, none of these are likely to come out with a working treatment prior to 2023 in my estimation.
  • The biggest unexpected bolt from the blue is exosome treatment for hair loss. There was tremendous excitement about this during the second half of 2019. Several prominent hair transplant surgeons have highly recommended this new treatment to me.
  • Also of interest in 2020 will be further improvements in: 3D-printed hair via bioprinting; skin printing with working hair follicles a la PolarityTE; allogeneic hair transplants; CXXC5 targeting PTD-DBM; and WNT signaling related treatments.
  • Even surprising new recent discoveries in areas ranging from: quorum sensing related plucking; to scalp electrocution caps; to senolytics; to cancer research related hair growth findings could all ultimately regrow our hair.
  • In the long term, CRISPR or other genetic modification related cures for hair loss will likely be a reality.

Disappointments

Aclaris Therapeutics and Histogen have been major disappointments after much hype for years. I largely avoided covering them in 2019 on purpose. Allergan’s Bimatoprost and Setipiprant have also not panned out as expected.

Shaving or Buzzing Your Head like Ricki Lake

I have mentioned many times in the past that the best solution to hair loss for men is shaving your head. That is, if you can accept that option and finally set yourself free. It is rare for women to go for this drastic measure, but there are always exceptions and trendsetters such as the below.

The biggest hair loss news story to start 2020 entails famous US talk show host Ricki Lake buzzing her head. Apparently, she has been suffering from hair loss and related depression for 30 years and finally decided to shave it off. CNN, BBC and numerous other major publications covered this story today. Below is Ms. Lake’s Instagram post detailing her interesting story:

Hair Loss Buzzed Shaved Head.
Ricki Lake buzzed her head after 30 years of hair loss.

53 thoughts on “In 2013, I Predicted a Hair Loss Cure in 2020”

  1. 2 days into 2020 and no hair loss cure, no flying cars nor Marty McFly hoverboards. The future is a lie!! Lol. I’m really hoping for great news out of Japan this year.

    1. I have half a mind to fly to China this year and conduct primary on-ground research via Chinese government approval. Visit all the secret labs working on CRISPR, stem cell and related technologies to make people beautiful and not just healthy.

      1. The more painful is losing an asset you once had, redifining yourself without it is crucial to one’s well being.
        As per your goal, the research about aging will solve these problems (hair/skin/teeth…) faster than your mice in Japan ;-)
        Ps : I had 5 HT with the best surgeons in the world.
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/robinseatonjefferson/2019/08/26/how-extraordinary-breakthroughs-in-anti-aging-research-will-happen-faster-than-people-think/#3d435fa33dd5

      2. Let me take a wild guess; your guess, after seven years (at the time seven years sounded like an eternity to me) is that no cure will be here by the end of the year.

        I gave up hope long ago.

  2. Well, you were only 1 or 2 years off. But the field will grow really fast in this decade. I can really see that by 2029 we will get around 10 treatments/therapies that will have similar to superior efficacy than fin/min and without side-effects. So comparing 2029 and 2019 about hair loss treatments will be like comparing day and night.

  3. Hello Admin,

    first thank you for your work in 2019, I really appreciate it.

    I have news regarding Tsuji/Organ Tech. So apparently they have a newly designed website, with some new information too. I haven’t been there for a couple of months, so maybe it is not really new to you all. To summarize from their website:

    They have 3 different types of treatments:
    * First generation: “dermal papilla injections” – seems similar to TissUse/J.Hewitt and Replicel and should be for NW 2/3. I didn’t know that they develop this approach.
    * Second generation: this is the one we were always talking about, the “Organ Germ Method” (Epithelial stem cells combined with dermal papilla cells). Higher NW 4/5/6. Practically the cure.
    * Third generation: hair follicles from “induced pluripotent stem cells”. I did not know they follow this approach. To my knowledge this is the same technique as Stemson’s. Thought to be for the most severe and pathological cases of Alopecia.

    Tsuji said in his last statement from July that they want to develop health tourism, meaning you have to travel to Japan (several times). According to OrganTech, this is not true:
    “we harvest a small number of hair follicles from the patient at a medical facility, and then send them to a contract manufacturer, who isolates, cultures, and amplifies them to generate follicle germ units via the organ germ method. These follicle germs are packaged and shipped back to the medical facility to be transplanted into the patient’s scalp.”
    I personally interpret this that it is not necessarily necessary to travel to Japan.

    Another bold statement from their website:
    “Long just a dream, successful hair regrowth is now possible through organ regenerative medicine in what will be a global breakthrough”.
    This alone sounds so damn good and hopeful – yet words always come easy, actions not so. Let’s see.

    They also developed something called a “mouse evaluation model” to determine the efficacy of hair drugs much faster.

    Apart from hair, the do some astonishing research and development in much more important areas: artificial skin, teeth regeneration, gland regeneration, 3D organ culture systems for vital organs.

    Please go and see for yourself on their website.

    I think it makes totally sense for all fellow sufferers to just wait for the acutal results of the likes of Shiseido, Tsuji, J.Hewitt this year before making hair transplants or other treatments. I am very optimistic.

    1. Thanks Ben! Riken, Organ Technologies, Kyocera and Tsuji all have sites and pages discussing this treatment. Can you post a link please?

        1. Thanks! BTW — most single link per comment will not make the comment go to spam. Unless the link seems sketchy to the plugin I use.

      1. Imagine the actual cure coming out this year and all of us sporting geralt of rivia or Rob lowe 80s hairstyles.
        We deserve it.

        1. But only 5% of us would look as good as Henry with that mane.
          His face is nearly perfect: strong jaw line, right proportions (the only slight asymmetry is his upper jaw, the maxilla, which is a little lower than perfect).
          As for Mr Lowe, I always found him to look too feminine face-wise. And with long hair he looks just like my blue-eyed aunt (Greek women are not the most feminine facewise, btw).
          Nonetheless, if long, luscious hair is your dream, go for it.

    2. Hey Ben! Thank you so much for this information!
      We now have to know whether Tsuji did trials for the first generation treatment.
      Then Kyocera could launch the treatment this year

  4. I also predict Botox will have a big breakthrough in hair loss this year. It’s already being used widely for this purpose in Europe but it hasn’t taken off hair for some reason.

  5. One can only hope this nightmare ends soon. Is there a confirmed date as to when they’re going to start their human trials, i.e. what month? I assume that in accordance to the above-written, that the information provided by organ tech refers to 2020 at least?

    1. It is a nightmare indeed, a nightmare that has been going on in my life for 27 years, when the nightmare ends I’ll be like a blind man who can finally see again… I hope I can handle it…

  6. Have replicel and Shiseido fixed their disagreement? Also can’t see the part of the different treatments in the link or organ technologies?

    1. I have been unable to visit that site for over 2 weeks because my browser is blocking it stating that someone is trying to steal my info

  7. Admin,

    I missed the news that Shiseido have resolved their partnership issues with Replicel. That’s good news!

    Everyone,

    What do we think of the photos on that Orlando Hair Clinic website? Surely Exomes can’t be THAT effective?

    What is the significance of the Organ Tech. website? It sounds amazing, but what are the practical implications? Is it just that we now know what Tsuji etc have been working on?

      1. Admin,

        I heard it from you!

        “Shiseido could also surprise us (after resolving partnership issues with Canada’s Replicel).”

        However, since you asked me that question, I’m guessing I have misread or misinterpreted your quote.

          1. Ah I read it that their problem was resolved. Admin maybe rephrase that sentence to include “if” they resolve ;)

            Great work btw!

  8. Also, do any of you have a hairloss gameplan?

    For example: For the last few years, my plan has been to use careful styling and concealers to hide my thinning until I can get on Finasteride (my wife and I are trying for a child) and eventually treat my hairloss when (if) a new treatment becomes available.

    I HATE concealers, and I hate having to use them. But I was hoping that concealers (Bouffe Thickening Spray, Jamie Stevens Thickening Spray) would help me until a better treatment comes to market.

    Since my thinning is becoming harder and harder to disguise, I’m thinking that I might have to change my gameplan. If I had any balls, I would shave my head, and try to get used to a buzzcut until Tsuji or another treatment becomes available. That way, I wouldn’t have to “waste” an hour each day, and I could do things I don’t do any more (football, swimming, walking in windy conditions without being intensely irritated).

    However, I’m concerned (scared) that I would hate it to the extent that I wouldn’t want to leave the house. I know this is pathetic, but I’m sure many of you will understand how I feel, and shaving your head is a big step for guys like us, so it’s important to consider the worst possible outcome.

    So, do any of you have similar gameplans? Having a small transplant to tide you over until Tsuji?

    1. Stephen,

      Never posted here but wanted to comment to give you an alternative. Why not just get on fin? I was in exactly the same as you and my partner and I were trying to conceive. Asked my doc about it and he said there were no risks. Went on fin Dec 2018, conceived in May 2019 (my wife’s mid 30s so the time it took is probably more due to age) and scans are all good with a few weeks to go. We even did blood test for congenital defects.

      A year later it honestly changed my life, my hair almost back to what it was in the start. Wouldn’t even notice anything if my hair was completely wet.

      If you’re concerned, I would get my sperm count checked just to make sure it’s not low to start. Mine was pretty high anyway but don’t feel like it should be a concern. At the very least, just ask your doctor and ignore what anonymous people on forums are telling you.

      Good luck!

      1. Anon,

        I appreciate the reply!

        Regarding finasteride, I consulted a fertility doctor, my GP and two dermatologists. All of them told me that I should wait until my wife is pregnant, just to be on the safe side. I would start it tomorrow, but my wife has to come first.

        I’m glad to hear that it changed your life! When you say your hair went “almost back to what it was”, can you elaborate? What age are you? What sort of loss?

        I’m guessing finasteride had a thickening effect? I don’t want to get my hopes up, but when I eventually get round to trying it, I’m praying it thickens my existing hair or reverses the miniturisation I’ve got. I’m 38, with diffuse thinning all over. I have an entire head of hair, (welly, mostly) but almost every strand is on its way out!

        Paul (Long story, but my real name is Paul)

        If you’re concerned, I would get my sperm count checked just to make sure it’s not low to start. Mine was pretty high anyway but don’t feel like it should be a concern. At the very least, just ask your doctor and ignore what anonymous people on forums are telling you.

        1. I was 32 when i started to notice, it got much worse a year later and now at 35 it’s almost back to normal. I was probably a NW2/NW1.5 but was having pretty aggressive diffuse thinning on top. I was losing a lot of hair after showering each day. The hair count was much lower all over and my hair was thinner too.

          I experienced all the anxieties that you had. I could see my scalp in harsh light (and when I lifted my hair up I could see almost bald areas) and was afraid to use hair gel and combed my hair in such a way so that it would hide my scalp as much as possible. I would get really anxious when it was windy and didn’t want to shower with my wife in the bathroom at the same time because I was so embarrassed. I was honestly miserable as it happened so fast and aggressively.

          I also use minoxidil twice a day and Nizoral shampoo twice a week. I was on minoxidil from the age of 33 before getting on fin at 34. Minoxidil on its own slowed down my loss (or maybe just thickened what I had) but I was still losing ground fast until I started on fin.

          A year later I can say that that the hair count that I lost on top (or that was in a dormant phase from falling out) has come back completely. The hair is still thinner than say my late 20s but I’m hoping it might thicken a little still over time as it recovers. At the very least, I no longer have to worry about the wind or my hair getting wet as it’s just not noticeable. In terms of my NW2, I reckon my hairline is coming forward a little bit as I’m noticing some more spaced apart hairs appearing at the front of my hairline where I’m pretty sure didn’t exist before. Then I have some really thin (but long, maybe an 1-1 and a half inches long) new baby hairs in between those sparse hairs. If they fill in then my hair line will be pretty much where it was in my 20s before all this started.

          Best of luck with it, I hope you and your wife conceive quickly and it works well for you :)

        2. Finasteride killed my first marriage, this thing made my life a living hell, if one of you knows anyone from Merck, tell them they belong in jail.

  9. How long are the human trials (Tsuji) supposed to last? I don’t care how much the procedure is, just knowing that something is available would be enough for now!

  10. I just followed the link you posted, there are no before and after pictures of exosomes that I saw, only before and after did hair transplants. Are you just trying to advertise for this site or something?

  11. We are still years away from tsuji work being available for us. I do believe he will be the one to crack the code for hair rejuvenation, cloning and unlimited supply fue. So definitely in the right direction to start this decade. I think by the end of 2020s will see hair cloning available for general public(for those with big wallets). They need to extensively perfect it before administering it out on a large scale. Fingers crossed for tsuji to finish trials in the next couple years. Hopefully SM, Follica, and CB can work well and hold us on hair till tsuji availability.

  12. Sorry to go off topic. Well maybe it is still on topic as we are not in with a cure yet but the two or more treatments available can still be quite variable depending on brand

    I just recently a week or so ago switched from finasteride to dutasteride. I haven’t noticed any side effects yet and I am hoping that I won’t. Dutasteride is actually cheaper than brand name propecia in Australia. But still more expensive than generic finasteride. However If I only take it once every two days it works out about the same price.

    As I have mentioned on this comments section in the past, rogaine and Kirkland do not seem to work for me. At all, the only minoxidil that actually does work is minoxidil with retinoic acid, and not all formulas work.. Depending on which compounding pharmacy I use, will have a huge impact on the product. One compounded uses 50%ppg and 50%alcohol.. I stopped getting it from him because it would always crystallise. Another compounded I tried would use 80%alcohol and 20%ppg.. He explained that when he would add the minoxidil powder, it would not dilute into the liquid until he addedcl citric acid, the citric acid really helped stabalize the formula so it would not crystallise. However I found the mixture to dry my hair out extremely bad and it never worked very well. My main minoxidil compounded is in Melbourne Australia and his formulas are the best I have ever tried. These are the ones that will stop my hair from falling and grow new hairs. I am not sure what the mixture is or how it is made but it is certainly the best minoxidil I have used.
    The thing is I can’t keep spending $140 aud on 100ml of the formula.
    So I am looking online for everybody’s favourite minoxidil formula.
    I still see people talking about Dr Lee’s formula, even years after he was shut down by the fda.
    From what I have read he used retinoic acid also, and apparently it went on and dried like water.. Which is very similar to what my favourite compounded minox is like.

    I have been looking at different brands of minox online, trying to figure out how to cut costs this year.
    Has anyone used lipogaine or the minoxidil max
    Spectral is another brand. And also amazon’s home brand seems like the cheapest of all.

    What is everyone’s thoughts?

    What is a good brand and what has worked for you when regaine and Kirkland minox have not?

    I also noticed when I was taking a vitamin
    Thankyou

    1. It could very well still be 2020 if Tsuji or Shiseido announces their research results. Christiano’s Rapunzel expects human trials will begin soon. There’s also ‘Bead-based hair follicle germs’ from Fukada, Terskikh’s Stemson, J. Hewitt’s SHT, etc, etc. anyone of these has a good shot at success.

      Admin predicted the cure would ‘be here’ by the end of 2020. That doesn’t necessarily mean released in 2020. Just show us the most hopelessly dire Norwood 7 turn back the clock to 1 and the prophecy is fulfilled, even if the logistics and the paperwork take a couple more years to file. Hats off gentlemen!

  13. The picture is under “exosomes hair restoration” rubric, I don’t know how did you come to conclusion that it was hair transplant. Aldough, it’s a great result even for a hair transplant, considering the guy was slick bald.
    I came across this picture on google, that is how I find a site, not promoting anything.

    1. Faust, that picture that you are referring to is a hair transplant, not exosome. Click on “Jgraft hair transplant” or “neograft/fue hair transplant” in the drop down menu, scroll towards the bottom and you will see the exact same picture of the exact same guy. Nowhere are they claiming that that picture is results from exosomes, not to mention the marker line across his head showing where they were making his artificial hair line from the transplant

  14. Admin, since Samumed is probably finishing phase 3 by the end of this year, may be you could contact them to do some questions like, why do they postponed the conclusion of phase 3? They got a hair increase of 10% in 3 months, what are they expecting for a year? If everything goes right, when are they expecting to start to shell their product? etc.

  15. Just wanted to share my experience for anyone who struggles to tolerate finasteride use. I’ve always experienced sexual sides when taking the drug which makes treating hair loss impossible. Frustrating. But I’ve stumbled upon a solution online that has been working for me. Taking anastrzole half mg every other day has lowered my estrogen levels to the normal range and incentivized my body to produce more testosterone. Finasteride has always had the effect of raising estrogen levels which causes side effects and over time your body responds by lowering testosterone to keep estrogen levels back to normal, which also causes side effects. Taking anastraole breaks this imbalance caused by finasteride so that your body can produce testosterone without causing estrogen to spike. I am now able to use finasteride 1mg daily with 0.5 mg of anastrzole eod now with minimal issues. I’d say I’m feeling 95% of normal prefinasteride after a couple months and still improving. Talk to your doctor and give it a shot.
    Anastrzole is only dangerous if you’re a post menopausal woman, other bone issues are rare even at the full 1mg daily dose. A mans body produces too much testosterone that can be aromatized into estrogen. Plus the tests produce estrogen directly too. It’s hard to completely deplete estrogen low enough to weaken bones. And don’t waste your time with grape seed extract or DIM. they work marginally at best and not consistently. good luck.

  16. Looking through the linked list of hair loss cures around the World, should not France also be included? I believe L’Oreal is also working on some sort of hair multiplication technology.

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